July
2007
An October Surprise?
Perhaps I am insanely paranoid, but I find the National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive (HSPD-20) profoundly disturbing. Stated simply, it can be read as saying that, if an event occurs that the president declares to be a “catastrophic emergency,” in the name of preserving continuity of government functions at all levels, the president, through Homeland Security and National Security can do whatever he pleases. He will coordinate the activities of the legislative and judicial branches of government.
It is unlikely that this directive was issued without forethought as to its use. Although the directive mentions natural disasters, the focus is on an attack by our enemies. I doubt that Bush would have issued this directive for the sake in order to empower a possibly Democratic successor. I suspect that he anticipates at least a real chance that he will have the opportunity to put it into effect himself. But does he really think that our enemies will be in position during the next year or so to pull off a major attack against us, one that he could declare to be a catastrophic emergency? That seems implausible.
What then may be the reasoning? It is most likely to be related to Iran. Concern about Iran is not limited to those who have made no secret of their desire that the United States wage war against it, such as the leaders of Israel and Dick Cheney. The reason we have not attacked is probably that we do not have the ground forces to do so. An attack limited to bombing would not accomplish the desired ends and might have massive negative consequences. Furthermore, the American people are in no mood for a vastly expanded war.
Meanwhile our saber rattling and “diplomacy” have driven Iran into the new block of Asian powers including Russia and centering in China. Iran’s oil is likely to become part of the “Asian Energy Security Grid.” American global hegemony is threatened now as it has not been since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. This is not the legacy Bush wants to leave.
The alternative would be a full-scale war with Iran directed to regime change. This would require a greatly enlarged army that is possible only with a draft. Only a “catastrophic emergency.” such as a major attack upon us by Iran, would make this draft acceptable. The ideal, then, would be to provoke a massive hostile action on Iran’s part. This might be an invasion of Iraq and a major attack on our troops there. But if the administration cannot provoke that, then it could produce another false flag operation, this time blamed on Iran. As one who is convinced that 9/11 was a false flag operation, I have little doubt as to the ability and willingness of the administration to engage in this kind of manipulation of the American people.
I am not asserting that a final decision has been made to produce such a “catastrophic emergency.” I have little doubt that among the scenarios discussed at high levels of our government, this is one. If this scenario should be decided on, HSPD-20 is ready at hand to justify ignoring of normal constitutional procedures, the declaration of war, the initiation of the draft, and the suppression of what little dissent there may be. Elections may be “postponed,” or, given the new climate, swung to the Republicans, even if the Democratic candidates assure the public of their support of the war.
Some may feel that speculating about what may happen is unwise and inappropriate. But if we do not consider such possibilities until they have become actualities, it is then too late. Opposition would be useless in practical political terms, and very dangerous. Perhaps if there is some thought about such possibilities in advance, some recognition that what would occur would not in fact be initiated by Iran, the planners would be a bit more hesitant to move forward.